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Double jeopardy is an empirical law in marketing where, with few exceptions, the lower market share brands in a market have both far fewer buyers in a time period and also lower brand loyalty. The term was originally coined by social scientist William McPhee in 1963 who observed the phenomenon, first in awareness and liking scores for Hollywood actors, and later in behaviours (e.g. reading of comic strips and listening to radio presenters).〔McPhee, William N (1963), Formal Theories of Mass Behaviour. New York: The Free Press of Glencoe〕 Shortly afterwards Andrew Ehrenberg discovered the Double Jeopardy law generalised to brand purchasing.〔Ehrenberg, A.S.C. (1969) "Towards an Integrated Theory of Consumer Behaviour," Journal of the Market Research Society, 11 (No. 4, October), 305-37.〕 Subsequently Double Jeopardy has been shown to apply across categories as diverse as laundry detergent to aviation fuel,〔Ehrenberg, Andrew S C, Gerald G Goodhardt, and T Patrick Barwise (1990), "Double Jeopardy revisited," Journal of Marketing, 54 (3), 82-91.〕 across countries and time.〔Ehrenberg, Andrew S C, Mark D Uncles and Gerald G Goodhardt (2004), "Understanding brand performance measures: Using Dirichlet benchmarks," Journal of Business Research, 57 (12), 1307-25〕 This empirical law-like phenomenon is due to a statistical selection effect that occurs if brands are broadly substitutable selling to much of the same types of people (often referred to as a lack of Product differentiation and market partitioning). The Double Jeopardy empirical generalization is explained and predicted by the NBD-Dirichlet theory of repeat purchase.〔Goodhardt, Gerald J, Andrew S C Ehrenberg, and Christopher Chatfield (1984), "The Dirichlet: A comprehensive model of buying behaviour," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 147 (5), 621-55.〕〔Ehrenberg, Andrew S C, Mark D Uncles and Gerald G Goodhardt (2004), "Understanding brand performance measures: Using Dirichlet benchmarks," Journal of Business Research, 57 (12), 1307-25〕 See also Schmittlein, Bemmaor and Morrison (1985).〔Schmittlein, David C., Albert C. Bemmaor, and Donald G. Morrison (1985),"Why Does the NBD Model Work? Robustness in Representing Product Purchases, Brand Purchases and Imperfectly Recorded Purchases," Marketing Science, 4 (3), 255-266〕 == Marketing strategy implications == The main implication of Double Jeopardy is that market share growth depends substantially on growing the size of a brand's customer base.〔Sharp, Byron (2010). How Brands Grow. South Melbourne: Oxford University Press.〕 So brand managers of a smaller market share brand should not be reprimanded for lower customer loyalty metrics. Also, they should not be expected to build customer loyalty to the brand without substantially increasing the brand's market penetration.〔Ehrenberg and Goodhardt, ''Marketing Research'', Spring issue. 2002.〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Double jeopardy (marketing)」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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